Institutional Watch: Cotton Futures (2012-6-12)

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20482 yuan / ton; 229 level 19586 yuan / ton; 328 level 18580 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17695 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9980 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15320 yuan / ton; C32S price 25800 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock:

The domestic manufacturers are more willing to use imported cotton and domestic cotton because of the large price difference between inside and outside cotton.

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3. imported cotton: in June 11th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton fell again, except for 0.5 cents in West Africa cotton, other varieties fell by 2-3 cents. Egypt's long staple cotton prices rose.

At present, the inventory of raw materials of textile enterprises continues to decline, even if the cotton prices have fallen sharply, it has failed to stimulate a decent demand. The start-up and purchasing intentions of SMEs are still very low. The shortage of quotas has led to the excessive purchasing cost, which has affected the enthusiasm of textile enterprises.

4.ICE cotton: ICE cotton futures closed up on Monday, strong investor buying to boost spot month July cotton, but December contract continued to fall to the 10 day moving average support position.

5. euro debt crisis: the euro group announced on the 9 day that it will provide Spanish banks with no more than 100 billion euros ($125 billion) in relief funds after the Spanish government has made formal applications.

In the context of global cotton supply and demand easing, cotton demand remains weak. We still can not see signs of improvement. Besides, under the influence of policy, the price of cotton is still at a high level, and domestic cotton prices still stand at the highest position in the global cotton price, and the pressure is still not small.

Although China may have entered a cycle of "widening the currency", it still shows "insufficient ingredients and insufficient efficacy" compared to several major problems faced by the domestic cotton textile industry.

Aside from monetary easing, cotton prices will still be weak if there are no more major themes of the cotton spinning industry itself.

Investors should pay close attention to the monthly supply and demand report released by the US Department of agriculture on Tuesday to see whether the Ministry of agriculture will raise the forecast of global cotton carry over inventory in 2012/13.

Last night, the news of Spain's financial aid failed to dispel the worries of the market. The US dollar index rose sharply, while the commodity market generally fell below.

However, ICE cotton futures were mixed. In July, the contract rose sharply under the push of short back, while the December contract was slightly lower by the 20 day average.

At present, the market trend is not optimistic, investors will pay close attention to USDA6 month supply and demand report.

On the news side, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in May 2012, the export volume of China's textile and clothing was 21 billion 834 million US dollars, an increase of 16.14%, an increase of 7.36% over the same period last year.

September 2011 -2012 May, China's textile and clothing (above two categories) exports totaled $175 billion 421 million, an increase of 9 billion 829 million US dollars, an increase of 5.94%.

In the international market, in June 11th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton fell again. Except for 0.5 cents in West Africa cotton, other varieties fell by 2-3 cents. Egypt's long staple cotton prices rose.

At present, the inventory of raw materials of textile enterprises continues to decline, even if the cotton prices have fallen sharply, it has failed to stimulate a decent demand. The start-up and purchasing intentions of SMEs are still very low. The shortage of quotas has led to the excessive purchasing cost, which has affected the enthusiasm of textile enterprises.

Under the pressure of the continued macro atmosphere and the fundamentals of the new year, the international cotton price continues to fall.

Domestic market, 11, domestic cotton spot prices continue to decline.

Downstream consumption has not improved, grey storage inventories have been in a high position for a long time, the current domestic and foreign cotton prices remain high, the enthusiasm of enterprises to use domestic cotton is even lower, the domestic cotton consumption is hard to pick up in the future, and cotton prices are also difficult to rise.

Spot quotation. In June 11th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 88.30 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 14782 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The price of Australia cotton was 91.60, the general trade port delivery price was 15313 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 91.60, the general trade port delivery price was 15313 yuan / ton, the West African cotton price was 87.35, the general trade port delivery price 14639 tons.

National cotton price A index 19586 yuan / ton, down 55 yuan; B index 18580 yuan, down 24 yuan.

Market analysis, before the macro situation has not changed significantly, commodity market variables remain, need to keep a sober at any time.

Despite the pressure on overnight commodities, the US cotton continues the recent rebound trend and relies on the 80 platform to test the sell-off.

Driven by the external market, Zheng cotton short line 3 consecutive trading date price in the MA5-MA10 interval to find direction, once stabilized, interval pressure stage platform will appear.

On the operation, there will be more empties on the MA10.

[Wanda futures] short back to make the United States cotton ups and downs each other

Spain's banking sector received 100 billion euros of assistance, while China's export figures were good, which supported Monday's commodity prices. The ICE cotton rose at a time when it was backed up by shorts, with the highest contract to 70.6 cents per pound in December. But the July contract is about to enter the delivery period. The short end of the contract will bring 2.19 cents to 75.09 cents / pound in July, while the December contract is down 0.59 cents to 69.29 cents / pound, and cotton prices are near strong and weak.

USDA will continue to publish monthly demand and supply reports on Tuesday night. The market is concerned about whether it will continue to raise the global end inventory of 2012/13. If the report continues to be negative, cotton prices will continue to decline.

Monday ICE cotton prices are mixed, the main contract in December closed down, although its stable short-term average, the KD and MACD indicators continue to rise in a row, MACD index red column growth, short-term rebound may continue.

But the EMA system keeps a good alignment, and the long-term downtrend will not change.

It is expected that the December contract will continue for 64-73 cents / pound in the horizontal area. If the fundamentals, technology and macro level are all bad, the idea of keeping the long term empty will not be changed.

China's CPI and PPI data released on Saturday showed that China's economy has been declining for 11 months, although China's interest rate cut is 7, but it is difficult to stimulate exports and domestic demand.

Although Spain's banking sector has received 100 billion euros of bailout, European debt is still facing great uncertainty. Meanwhile, US quantitative easing has failed. The euro zone economic recession will continue and drag down the fragile economy of the world. In the future, China's economy will continue to face downward pressure and consumption will hardly recover. This will put pressure on commodity prices.

As at 15 o'clock on June 11th, Zheng cotton 1209-ICE cotton 1207 contract price difference still as high as 7923 yuan / ton, 11 U. S. EMOT-M grade cotton import cost (excluding quota price) is only 14614 yuan / ton, India Shank-6M import cost is only 14153 yuan / ton, that is, the international cotton price is significantly lower than domestic cotton price, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices remain high, China's textile and clothing lack competitiveness, consumption is difficult to recover.

Despite the recent decline in Zheng cotton stocks, but the lack of confidence, Zheng cotton's rebound is not coke view, concerned about the 1209 contract 18400 yuan / ton pressure level, such as effectively break through the single stop loss, wait or leave, or else rely on the pressure level to increase the empty list.